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Harvora™ model-card brief

Irrigation and soil-water balance model card

This model card documents the method, evidence target and limitations for irrigation and soil-water balance. Historical evidence remains available: an unpromoted connected-state candidate reached 96.54% classification accuracy across 3,211 held-out region-days with a prior-day moisture input, and an earlier weather-only balance reached root-zone r = 0.799. Their truth source is ERA5-Land reanalysis rather than orchard probes. These results do not validate the current reference_et0_inputs_v2 routing, initial-state estimate or days-to-deficit output; a fresh joint evaluation and independent physical-probe evidence remain open gates.

Direct answer

What this supports

Days-to-deficit and depletion fraction are separate weather-derived planning estimates. A depletion percentage is not a sensor reading, a probability of crop damage or a promise of when stress begins.

Intended for New Zealand growers, technical partners, lenders and insurers.

Evidence and method

How the signal is formed

Current irrigation serving uses compatible provider FAO-56 reference ET0 when its selected forecast member has complete hourly depths in millimetres. Otherwise it retains a disclosed linear weather-demand estimate. The resolved species or crop coefficient and effective rainfall inform the timing distribution; initial water storage remains estimated unless a compatible moisture input is supplied. Seasonal replay uses complete compatible stored provider ET0 or the disclosed estimate, preserving each historical weather trajectory.

Evidence grade: ESTIMATE

Weather-benchmark measured today; every grower outcome logged in the product feeds the field benchmark it is measured against next.

Boundary

How to read this evidence

Historical evidence remains available: an unpromoted connected-state candidate reached 96.54% classification accuracy across 3,211 held-out region-days with a prior-day moisture input, and an earlier weather-only balance reached root-zone r = 0.799. Their truth source is ERA5-Land reanalysis rather than orchard probes. These results do not validate the current reference_et0_inputs_v2 routing, initial-state estimate or days-to-deficit output; a fresh joint evaluation and independent physical-probe evidence remain open gates.

Provenance

Sources and related evidence

Published 25 August 2026 · Last reviewed 9 October 2026 · Harvora technical review

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