Public prediction catalogue
ESTIMATE
Harvora forecasts overnight frost risk for every block as a probability. In an independent held-out benchmark across 2,356 New Zealand nights, it caught 90.48% of frost events (76 of 84) with a 3.79% false-alarm rate at the stated operating point.
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Harvora finds orchard spray windows worth using: of 308 windows it selected across 13 regions over two held-out seasons, 92.2% stayed rain-free — against 82.6% of unselected candidates. A selective timing signal for operational planning; the product label and local conditions always govern the final call.
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Harvora estimates each block's water deficit and days until its modelled water buffer is depleted. The current run identifies its weather-demand method, crop coefficient and uncertainty. These planning estimates have not established orchard water-deficit or irrigation-timing accuracy.
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Harvora projects each block's harvest timing, and it sharpens as the season runs: median timing error is 1.5 days by day 60, down from 4.5 days at day 30, with the uncertainty band covering the regional spread 95.3% of the time.
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Harvora screens disease-conducive conditions on a 0–100 pressure scale, using crop-specific methods and the available weather and site context. The score is a conditions index, not a probability that plants are infected. Each current run names its method, evidence grade and limitations.
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Harvora counts bee-flyable hours across each block's flowering window, so bee placement and bloom weather get planned together. The bee-flyable weather classification reaches 91.7% accuracy (86.4% recall, 86.9% precision) across 2,544 spring hours.
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Harvora watches for damaging wind before it arrives: the watch caught 90.9% of damaging-wind days (209 of 230) across 1,378 days in 13 regions, with a 12.7% false-alarm rate — a day-level protection and labour signal, tuned to favour catching events over staying quiet.
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Harvora screens hail-conducive conditions at each block's coordinates out to seven days, catching 90.2% of held-out convective events (55 of 61) in regional model analysis. Hail is the hardest surface in the catalogue to validate — so its boundary is the most explicit.
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Harvora times the windows that matter for three pests — codling moth, potato tuber moth and tomato-potato psyllid — as 7-day probabilistic stage windows. Each lifecycle stack clears its AUC, Brier and calibration gates, and is built to direct scouting, not to assert a pest is present.
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Harvora reads the season's dryness pressure from 41 years of regional rainfall history conditioned on the current ENSO state — climatology-informed planning context across 13 representative regions, published for exactly what it is.
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