Harvora™ prediction brief
Disease conditions indices for New Zealand crops
Direct answer
What this supports
Disease surfaces describe conditions pressure from temperature, wetness and relevant site context. Scenario ranges describe sensitivity to those inputs; they do not establish infection probabilities or disease outcomes.
Intended for New Zealand growers, technical partners, lenders and insurers.
Evidence and method
How the signal is formed
Current daily weather-disease serving evaluates named formula kernels separately for coherent forecast members and combines their bounded conditions indices. The former formula-trained machine-learning window classifier does not participate in this serving version. Estimated blueberry and soil-saturation pressure paths retain their own narrower evidence boundaries.
Evidence grade: SOURCED
Published scientific methods, faithfully implemented.
Boundary
How to read this evidence
Historical classifier evidence is retained: ROC-AUC 0.90–0.99 across twelve artifacts and 18,064 held-out formula-labelled rows measures reproduction of earlier published-formula labels, not infection accuracy measured in orchards. It does not establish classifier participation or validation of current disease_pressure_members_v2 serving. Independent infection outcomes and local calibration remain open gates; a separately evaluated named infection forecast must carry its own outcome evidence and lineage.
Provenance
Sources and related evidence
Published 25 August 2026 · Last reviewed 9 October 2026 · Harvora technical review