Harvora™ prediction brief
Frost risk forecasting for New Zealand orchards
Harvora forecasts overnight frost risk for every block as a probability. In an independent held-out benchmark across 2,356 New Zealand nights, it caught 90.48% of frost events (76 of 84) with a 3.79% false-alarm rate at the stated operating point.
Direct answer
What this supports
Each block gets a probability distribution of overnight minima and freeze chance — so a frost probability reads directly against your protection decision for that night, rather than a single alarm number.
Intended for New Zealand growers, technical partners, lenders and insurers.
Evidence and method
How the signal is formed
Hourly ensemble forecasts are bias-corrected per block and sampled as a 1,000-draw Monte Carlo distribution of overnight minima and freeze probability.
Evidence grade: ESTIMATE
Weather-benchmark measured today; every grower outcome logged in the product feeds the field benchmark it is measured against next.
Boundary
How to read this evidence
This is a held-out regional weather benchmark, not yet commercial orchard-outcome validation. The alarm threshold is deliberately tuned to miss almost nothing, so about half of flagged nights are true frost events (positive predictive value ≈ 46.91%) — the trade-off is published, not hidden. Full detail (TP 76 / FN 8 / FP 86 / TN 2,186, rounded from committed four-decimal rates) is in the technical brief.
Sources and related evidence
- Open-Meteo historical forecast API · SOURCED
- Harvora public technical brief · SOURCED
- Harvora source register · SOURCED
Published 25 August 2026 · Last reviewed 25 August 2026 · Harvora technical review
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