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Harvora™ prediction brief

Wind-damage watch for orchards

Harvora watches for damaging wind before it arrives: the watch caught 90.9% of damaging-wind days (209 of 230) across 1,378 days in 13 regions, with a 12.7% false-alarm rate — a day-level protection and labour signal, tuned to favour catching events over staying quiet.

Direct answer

What this supports

Wind surfaces report a day-level protection and labour signal with peak-gust context; local exposure and shelter modify the on-block reading.

Intended for New Zealand growers, technical partners, lenders and insurers.

Evidence and method

How the signal is formed

Forecast gusts are screened against a sensitivity-prioritised damaging-wind threshold and sampled as a distribution of damaging-gust hours.

Evidence grade: ESTIMATE

Weather-benchmark measured today; every grower outcome logged in the product feeds the field benchmark it is measured against next.

Boundary

How to read this evidence

The watch is fitted on forecast-only daily weather from the prior season at a fixed sensitivity operating point — forecast-versus-ERA5 wind-weather evidence, not observed orchard-damage validation. A source-derived 97% companion figure exists as a separate evidence tier and is never blended into this number.

Provenance

Sources and related evidence

Published 25 August 2026 · Last reviewed 25 August 2026 · Harvora technical review

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