Harvora™ prediction brief
Insect lifecycle and pest timing
Harvora times the windows that matter for three pests — codling moth, potato tuber moth and tomato-potato psyllid — as 7-day probabilistic stage windows. Each lifecycle stack clears its AUC, Brier and calibration gates, and is built to direct scouting, not to assert a pest is present.
Direct answer
What this supports
Pest surfaces project lifecycle stage windows from bounded degree-day models, with trap or scouting evidence kept separate from the weather-driven timing.
Intended for New Zealand growers, technical partners, lenders and insurers.
Evidence and method
How the signal is formed
Sourced degree-day thresholds drive stage-window projections per crop, sampled as distributions and gated on compatible artifacts.
Evidence grade: ESTIMATE
Weather-benchmark measured today; every grower outcome logged in the product feeds the field benchmark it is measured against next.
Boundary
How to read this evidence
Each stack is validated against the published degree-day science on 640 held-out rows; field-labelled rows are still at zero. Treat it as an advisory timing screen — your traps and scouting records are the ground truth, and the surface is designed to work alongside them.
Sources and related evidence
- NOAA CPC growing degree days · SOURCED
- Potatoes NZ degree-day monitoring · SOURCED
- Harvora public technical brief · SOURCED
Published 25 August 2026 · Last reviewed 25 August 2026 · Harvora technical review
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